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Nov 11, 2022Liked by VK Macro

expect germany to adapt well in the mid-term. they are subsidizing 70% of industrial use (based on past averages) with other 30% based on pricing of more expensive LNG imports. biggest risk is the allowed 'free market' trading of subsidized gas, which could mean some in supply chain could become traders instead of producers critical within the chain.

long-term is a wildcard based on putin...his disappearance could mean whatever gas infrastructure still functional could flow freely as war reparations.

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