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#11: Some questions on the cycle
Some thoughts on what's preventing me from having more confidence about my view.
May 7, 2023
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April 2023
#10: Volatilty in oil
Thoughts on the oil market, OPEC+ cuts and more.
Apr 5, 2023
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February 2023
#9: The US Economy is Built Different
Assessing some of the factors which are truly different this time.
Feb 15, 2023
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January 2023
#8: US Inflation is dying, but not dead
Inflation should fall quickly over the course of this year, helping real incomes in the short term.
Jan 30, 2023
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#7: A sluggish economy, but roaring industrials – what’s driving this discrepancy?
Despite leading indicators showing the industrial sector to be in contraction, industrials continue to outperform the broader market.
Jan 17, 2023
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#7: A sluggish economy, but roaring industrials – what’s driving this discrepancy?
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November 2022
#6: Germany’s economy is on the brink
Higher energy prices coupled with weaker real demand points to a weak period over the next 6 months for the German economy.
Nov 11, 2022
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#6: Germany’s economy is on the brink
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October 2022
#5: What are companies saying about China?
Taking stock of the Chinese economy from the perspective of the largest companies
Oct 17, 2022
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#5: What are companies saying about China?
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#4: What's going on with bonds?
Fed tightening in the face of a slower economy has prevented bonds from catching a bid.
Oct 12, 2022
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#4: What's going on with bonds?
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August 2022
#3: The Consumer Has Never Been Unhappier
Summary: Consumer confidence has collapsed globally Historically low consumer confidence is consistent with weaker real consumption growth Increases in…
Aug 7, 2022
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July 2022
#2: The perfect S.T.O.R.M for bonds is now abating
Why I think long duration is attractive here.
Jul 22, 2022
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February 2021
#1: An update on UK Macro...
Despite Government support, the Bank of England remains in between a rock and a hard place.
Feb 10, 2021
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#1: An update on UK Macro...
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